Stock Forecaster agent
Forecasts demand for the next 30, 60 and 90 days for each item and warehouse, with a suggested safety stock and reorder point. It never acts on its own.
Validated with each clientWhat does Stock Forecaster replace? The work of a mis / data analyst: forecast demand and stock-outs. Forecasts demand for the next 30, 60 and 90 days for each item and warehouse, with a suggested safety stock and reorder point. It never acts on its own.
Shows why
It shows its reasons and how sure it is on every draft. When it is not very sure, it only brings the item to your notice.
Waits for you
Nothing is filed, paid or posted until a person says so.
Gets reviewed
Every approval and correction is recorded, so you can see how well it does on your own books.
A week with this agent
Take a distributor with a few hundred items across two warehouses. Here is how the forecast reaches the person who plans stock.
- Early Sunday, it picks its work. At 3 am in your time zone, Kinnow picks the forecasts that were refreshed longest ago, up to 25 in one run, for items and warehouses that already have a forecast.
- It reads what went out. For each one it adds up the stock that left that warehouse, month by month, for the last 12 months. An item with fewer than 3 months of movement is skipped, because a number built on so little would mislead.
- It writes the forecast. The agent gives expected demand for the next 30, 60 and 90 days, a trend (up, down or flat), whether the item is seasonal, how sure it is (as a percentage), and a suggested safety stock and reorder point.
- On Monday the stock planner looks. In the Demand forecast report the planner looks up one item and warehouse, or browses the Portfolio list, which ranks every item with a current forecast by the size of its 30-day figure.
- The planner decides. She compares the figure with what she knows, such as a festival season or a bulk order that is coming, and then changes a reorder level or raises a requisition herself. The forecast changes no reorder level and raises no order.
- Later, you can see how it did. The Forecast accuracy panel compares recent forecasts with what was actually dispatched and scores them (MAPE and WAPE, two standard measures of forecast error).
See your own items forecast. Send us a year of stock movements for a few items.
What it reads and what it hands back
| What it reads | What it hands back | Where it lands |
|---|---|---|
| Stock going out of each warehouse, month by month, for 12 months | 30, 60 and 90-day demand for the item | Demand forecast report; Portfolio list |
| A supplier lead time (7 days is assumed in the weekly run) | A suggested safety stock and reorder point | The same report, in the Safety stock and Reorder point columns |
| The same movements, for pattern | Trend (up, down, flat), seasonal or not, and a confidence percentage | The same report |
| Past forecasts and actual dispatch | An accuracy score for the recent window | Forecast accuracy panel |
What a person decides
- Whether to act on a forecast. It is advice. It does not change a reorder level, raise a purchase order or move stock.
- Reorder levels and orders. You set reorder levels and raise requisitions. Nothing is filed, paid or posted without a person.
- How much to trust a row. Each row carries a confidence figure. Treat a low one as a prompt to look at the item, not as an answer.
- What it never does. It never orders, never edits your item master and never reads anything but quantities by month.
Ask Kinnow about this
Ask in plain English. Before it answers, Kinnow shows where the answer will come from and what it will cost, and it uses only what the person asking is allowed to see.
| You could ask | What the answer shows |
|---|---|
| Which items in the Mumbai warehouse have a 30-day forecast above the stock we hold? | Items from the forecast, each with its 30-day figure and the stock you hold, with the source named |
| What is the reorder point for item WIRE-4MM at WH-MUM? | The forecast row for that item and warehouse: reorder point, safety stock and confidence |
| Which items show a rising trend this quarter? | Items marked up in the Trend column, largest first |
| How close were last quarter's forecasts to actual dispatch? | The accuracy score for the window, with forecast and actual quantities beside each other |
Bring your five most-asked stock questions and we will answer them on your data.
Works with
Part of Stock & Ship. These sit next to it:
- Reorder Planner turns low stock into a draft reorder and skips items that already have one open.
- Slow-mover Detector looks at the opposite problem: stock that has stopped moving.
- FEFO/FIFO selector picks the right lot when stock is issued.
- Reorder lists that count stock already ordered.
FEFO/FIFO selector
A rule built into the pick list: it uses the lot that expires first (FEFO) or the one that came in first (FIFO), as you choose when the list is made, and checks again when the pick is confirmed.
StockSlow-mover Detector
Finds stock that has not moved for a set number of days and ranks it by the money tied up in it, so you can review it.
Questions
What does the Stock Forecaster agent do?
Forecasts demand for the next 30, 60 and 90 days for each item and warehouse, with a suggested safety stock and reorder point. It never acts on its own.
Does Stock Forecaster act on its own?
No. It forecasts demand and suggests a safety stock and reorder point, and shows how sure it is. It orders nothing; a person sets reorder levels and raises requisitions.
Does Stock Forecaster learn?
Kinnow keeps every approval and rejection, along with how sure the agent said it was, so you can see how it does on your own books. We do not describe it as changing its own behaviour; corrections are kept so they can be reviewed with you.
How is it paid for?
It is part of your agent pack, and there is no charge per user.
How often does Stock Forecaster run, and how much history does it need?
It is set to run once a week, early on Sunday in your time zone, and refreshes the oldest forecasts first, up to 25 at a time. For each item it reads up to 12 months of stock going out and needs at least 3 months of movement before it will forecast.
How do I know whether to trust a forecast?
Each forecast shows how sure the agent is, as a percentage. The Forecast accuracy panel also compares recent forecasts with what was actually dispatched, so you can see how it is doing on your own items before you rely on it.
Tell Kinnow what slows you down.
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